2026 Social Security COLA Forecast: What Retirees Can Expect

Retirees are watching closely: each year, that small rise in Social Security—known as the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)—can mean the difference between making ends meet or falling short. As 2026 Social Security COLA approaches, the latest projections suggest a modest increase—but with plenty of caveats to consider.

Forecasts: A Modest Bump Ahead

• The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has steadily raised its forecast. It now estimates a 2.6% COLA, up from a previous 2.5% estimate.
• Likewise, Mary Johnson, a long-time Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, projects a 2.7% adjustment, based on the latest data through June 2025.
• The Social Security Board of Trustees is also leaning toward a similar figure—2.7%, though that hinges on how inflation plays out in summer and into early fall.

Overall, consensus expectations for 2026 hover within a 2.4%–2.7% range.

What It Means for Your Wallet

Let’s break it down:

• For the average retiree earning around $2,000 a month, a 2.6% boost translates to roughly $52 more per month, arriving in beneficiaries’ January 2026 checks.
• If the adjustment reaches 2.7%, that number edges higher—around $54 extra per month.

But Wait … More Costs Loom Large

The good news may be undercut by rising expenses—most notably, Medicare Part B premiums.

• Projected Part B rates are expected to climb from $185 (2025) to $206.50 (2026), a $21.50 monthly increase.
• That surge could eat up nearly 40% of the COLA bump—meaning the net gain might only be around $30 for many retirees.
• For lower-income beneficiaries (those receiving around $800 monthly), that premium hike might wipe out the entire COLA gain.
  

On top of this, the inflation measure used to calculate COLA—CPI-W—may not capture seniors’ spending realities. It underweights housing and medical care—areas where older adults typically spend more and where prices are rising faster.

Advocates have pushed for a shift to the CPI-E, a metric that more accurately reflects the inflation older Americans feel. A bill called the “Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act” proposes such a switch, though its fate remains uncertain.

Looking Ahead: When Will We Know for Sure?

The official COLA number is tentatively scheduled for mid‑October 2025, with the Social Security Administration expected to publish it on or around October 15. Once released, beneficiaries will receive notice in December, and their January 2026 Social Security checks will reflect the updated amount.

Final Thoughts: A Partial Win, but Not a Full One

Retirees likely face a gentle increase next year—but tempered by growing living costs, especially health care. While a 2.6% bump sounds promising, the reality many will feel is much smaller once Medicare deductions kick in. And for those watching every dollar, it’s still a tight squeeze.

If you or someone you know relies on these benefits, it’s a smart time to review Medicare options ahead of open enrollment and explore supplemental income strategies.